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Stereotypes are rooted in truths. My work with hot sauce and spices has landed me the moniker of “the King of Spice.” I’m not a pyromaniac; I don’t particularly enjoy insanely hot peppers, even though my tolerance for capsaicin has meandered into the realm of crazy. I have played with fire and gotten burnt. I have downed an entire teaspoon of hot sauce half as hot as pepper spray (6 million Scoville units) on live stream, which left me literally licking a stick of butter for 10 minutes. We all do really stupid things, but I believe there is a difference between regret and learning a lesson.
My first toe dip into the pond of fantasy football content happened to be a weekly article that predicted outlandish (but faintly plausible) performances on the NFL slate. The Twitter hashtag #PICANTakes was born shortly thereafter to track my predictions and keep receipts. I couldn’t be “the King of Spice” if I was only peddling the most delicious hot sauce in the world. I had to build a brand. Using my lifelong obsession with the sport of football, along with my colorful imagination, I embarked on a preseason forecast of epic proportions last year. It was over 8,000 words of spicy predictions for the 2021 season. I actually nailed quite a few events that transpired, even though it was published in early August (before training camp!). You can check it out here.
I pitched the same idea to the FantasyPros brass out of the blue one evening this summer. I wanted this behemoth to catch more eyeballs, to force more readers to gasp in shock that I would go there. I was stunned when he told me they liked the idea and that they want to drop the spice bomb right before Kickoff Thursday.
It is my dream to one day have a monumental preseason piece that annually drops with as much thunderous fanfare as Matthew Berry’s “Love/Hate.” That article is what spurred me to throw my hat into the content creation ring. I should also reveal that, similar to ole TMR, I will also be releasing a weekly version of PICANTakes for FantasyPros this season. I will let the parallels with the godfather of fantasy football diverge from here.
There are strange events on the NFL horizon that will heat up our seats and bring sweat to our brows. No team is safe from my convoluted clairvoyance. Each will have a spicy prediction for fantasy football and evidence to back up my lunacy. Without further ado, I present to you the 2022 Fantasy Football PICANTakes.
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Justin Herbert will produce 50 touchdowns and win NFL MVP.
We already caught ourselves a glimpse of all the great things Herbert is capable of on the football field. From his first NFL start, with no time to prepare against the defending Super Bowl champs, the Oregon legend has been a consummate professional under center for the upstart Chargers. Not only do I believe Herbert will be the QB1 in 2022, but he will leave Josh Allen in his tail lights.
Two contributing factors to Los Angeles failing to make the postseason in 2021 were their run defense and third down defense. The Chargers failed miserably to get the ball back to their electrifying offense, ranking 30th in rushing yards allowed per game and dead last on third downs. The additions of Khalil Mack and J.C. Jackson will be huge for this defense to turn the ball over to Herbert and company to light up the scoreboard.
Herbert still has his usual weaponry, but I believe his biggest upgrade will be more latitude at the line of scrimmage to change plays and improvise. I also have a strong suspicion that Herbert will scramble more and display his underrated athleticism in a big way for fantasy purposes. The only question will be whether the Chargers stay snake-bitten as a franchise or finally advance deep into the postseason.
Patrick Mahomes will not support any top-24 WRs and land outside the top-five QBs.
This obviously doesn’t include Travis Kelce, who might mess around and earn 170 targets this season. This WR group is just rough. A veritable collection of disappointments from yesteryear, Mahomes will definitely feel the loss of the most explosive player in the NFL. The impact Tyreek Hill had on defensive game plans is actually staggering. To expect Mecole Hardman, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Skyy Moore and others to “Money Ball” themselves into a mosaic of Hill is an effort in futility.
Only the rookie Moore has shown any ability to gain separation on the outside. Hardman is a speed slot without many nice things to say about him as a route runner or consistent target. MVS is a cardio-crushing vertical Z-receiver whose hips are stiffer than my cocktail when changing directions. JuJu is a warm blanket who settles into zones and has good hands but is one of the worst WRs in the NFL versus man coverage. Kelce is twice the big slot as JuJu, leaving the TikTok Trojan without a defined role.
Talent-wise, Mahomes is nothing short of generational and elite. Unfortunately, QBs rely on everyone else in the huddle to realize their full potential. Is it more likely that Mahomes is the high tide that raises all ships? Yes, but I will bet on the receiving talent (or lack thereof) over the situation that they get to catch passes from a future Hall of Famer. It isn’t like they are going to be a force running the ball either.
Jerry Jeudy will excel in the “Davante Adams role” in the Hackett offense and is a strong WR2.
I’ve caught a ton of flack for being a Courtland Sutton “hater.” I’ll clear the air here. I like Sutton, but don’t believe he will earn enough targets on a consistent basis to pay off at his ADP. Instead, I can clearly envision Jeudy slipping into that Adams alpha dog role from Hackett’s time in Green Bay like a tailored Armani suit. Jeudy is clearly not Adams but is so similar at this stage of his career that my intuition is screaming at me.
This offense will still be run-first, but the improved QB play with Russell Wilson will certainly balance things out. Will this offense be good or great? I’m not sure, but the skill position parallels between the 2021 Packers and 2022 Broncos are eery. There isn’t anything spicy to predict with Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon. Williams should continue to seize a more prominent slice of the pie, but Gordon will still cap his upside. The million-dollar question for fantasy will be Sutton or Jeudy, both or neither. I trust Jeudy to finally get the chance to live up to his first-round draft capital and succeed.
Zamir White will surpass Josh Jacobs in fantasy points per game.
The Raiders are such an intriguing team this season. The merging arrivals of the best WR in the NFL and accomplished offensive coach Josh McDaniels has Derek Carr proponents itching for a victory lap. McDaniels also brings something all fantasy managers hate to Sin City: an unpredictable RB committee. Jacobs is the incumbent workhorse with a history of consistent, yet inefficient performance.
White was the first skill position player drafted by the McDaniels/Ziegler regime in Las Vegas and the team traded up to get him. The former five-star track and football athlete from Georgia is easily the most explosive of the Raiders’ backfield among him, Jacobs, Ameer Abdullah and Brandon Bolden. The committee in New England under McDaniels was always tough to predict because the Patriots would feature whichever back posed the biggest matchup problem for each week’s opponent. They would also ride the hot hand for weeks, then abruptly switch.
White is a home run hitter who I predict will outshine Jacobs early on and never relinquish his footing. The team is obviously counting on him to do exactly that, from the draft to training camp rotations. “Zeus” might be the Vegas version of LeGarrette Blount, except he has 4.4 speed to go with his furious running style.
Lamar Jackson and Rashod Bateman will hook up for 100 receptions, 1,200 yards & seven touchdowns.
Something special is brewing in Baltimore. Lamar Jackson looks absolutely jacked and is in line to earn the most lucrative contract in NFL history. The team is sticking with Greg Roman at offensive coordinator, which means Jackson will be QB1 and RB1 combined into a freak superhero again. J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are both still on the slow mend from ACL surgery, leaving the backfield to Mike Davis and newcomer Kenyan Drake for the time being. I expect Jackson to air it out a bit more again this season, putting the second-year stud from Minnesota squarely in his crosshairs.
It could be argued that Mark Andrews is the top receiving threat in the Ravens’ offense, but I will push back on that. Marquise Brown was targeted 146 times to Andrews’ 153 last season. Andrews was hyper-targeted by backup Tyler Huntley in the games that Jackson missed with injury. Brown was traded to Arizona, leaving a chasm of vacated targets up for grabs in the narrowest receiving tree in the NFL. Bateman has all the chops to slide right in and put up massive numbers. He earned a 15% target share last season in only 10 healthy games as the team’s immediate starter at the X-receiver position. His separation metrics charted by Reception Perception were very impressive for a rookie who missed all of training camp with a hernia and was thrust into the most difficult role for any NFL WR. Bateman is going nuclear this season.
Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase will combine for 2,800 receiving yards.
This duo is already scary. They combined for over 2,500 receiving yards in 2021, with Tyler Boyd sliding in just under 900 himself. I see a bit of narrowing of this passing attack that leaves Boyd with a lower-quality of target volume. Cincy wants to feature Chase and Higgins for good reason. Joe Burrow is one of the best young QBs in the game and has shown more of a propensity to push the ball down the field as he gains professional experience.
The funny thing is I expect Chase’s yards per reception and touchdown numbers to regress slightly in 2022, to make way for a bit more target volume and normal balancing to a realistic mean. Higgins is the one I envision to have the higher ceiling this season, as he garners the secondary coverage that Chase enjoyed last season. This Bengals team might not have the same steam that propelled them to the Super Bowl last season, but you won’t be able to tell by their elite passing attack.
David Bell will lead all rookie WRs in receptions.
There was a strong consideration for making a prediction about these two RBs or the circus that is the QB room in Cleveland. Instead, the decision was made to heat it up considerably more. Amon-Ra St. Brown came from the fourth round to pile six-straight weeks together with 10-plus targets during the fantasy playoffs and win managers a ton of prize money. David Bell is a better football player than St. Brown. There, I said it. You don’t need to agree with me, but believe that the combination of Jacoby Brissett and Deshaun Watson will love to have a slot receiver who is always open. He will also have a clearer path to targets, with only declining veteran Amari Cooper and average downfield guy Donovan Peoples-Jones to compete with at WR. I foresee a similar role for Bell that propelled Jaylen Waddle to an NFL record 104 receptions for a rookie last season.
Watson will not return to the field until Week 13, putting the Browns in a precarious situation to rest their playoff chances on Brissett. The journeyman backup has made a living on vulturing goal-line touchdowns from RBs and avoiding boundary throws like the plague. Both Bell and David Njoku are in line with massive target volumes in 2022. I don’t believe Bell will break 100 receptions this season like Waddle did last year, but he will get peppered enough to beat out the other rookies in this class.
Diontae Johnson will set a new career high in yards per reception and repeat as a top-10 WR.
Say what you want about the QB situation in Pittsburgh, but it is a definitive upgrade over the Big Ben twilight years. Diontae Johnson flourished against all odds in his first few NFL seasons with a haggard and grizzled Roethlisberger barely able to push the ball down the field. According to Reception Perception, Johnson has been in the elite tier of NFL route runners versus man and zone coverages for two consecutive seasons. Whether the ball is being delivered by Mitchell Trubisky or the rookie first-round pick Kenny Pickett is immaterial to Johnson’s ascent to another fantastic performance from the X position.
I believe the selections of George Pickens and Calvin Austin this offseason were to address the departures of JuJu Smith-Schuster and Ray-Ray McCloud, not any indication of displeasure with Johnson or Chase Claypool. This frees up Claypool to return to the big slot where he excelled in 2020, putting the more talented route runners Johnson and Pickens on the outside to challenge defenses vertically. Diontae’s low average depth of target was squarely on the disintegrating shoulder of Big Ben since the receiver was thought of as more of a downfield receiver coming out of college. His expertise in running every type of route gives me a ton of optimism that not only will Diontae Johnson continue to command a huge target share, but that his yardage will explode from higher-quality looks down the field.
Josh Allen will regress slightly (to QB2), but also set a new career high in passing yards.
The gargantuan season that Josh Allen put up last season was just the beginning. He is still the consensus QB1 this draft season after producing 417.7 points in 2021. Like two trains passing in the night, I believe he passes the baton to Justin Herbert this season in overall scoring. It’s no knock on Allen; I just see his rushing production taking a dip in favor of more downfield passing. The respective skill sets of Allen’s weaponry will require fewer designed QB runs, but more bombs down the field. I see his passing production coming close to 5,000 yards, but his rushing yards tumbling considerably.
Will Josh Allen still average more than 20 fantasy points per game? Yes. Will he be able to outpace Herbert, who I predict will see an increase in rushing production to go with his passing prowess? Not quite. Buffalo needs to preserve the health of their franchise QB, which means a downtick in those QB sweeps and read options. Gabe Davis’ promotion to starting Z-receiver, along with McKenzie et al in the slot and James Cook roaming free in space lends to the idea of Ken Dorsey operating more in a West Coast style that uses short passing with YAC as an extension of the running game and deep shots on the boundary drawing softer coverage as a reaction to the potency of those shorter passes. Don’t be surprised if Khalil Shakir is the WR3 in this offense by the end of the season, either.
The Mike McDaniel offense will be the highest-scoring in the division.
Among all of these predictions, this might be the spiciest. The one-time ball boy under Mike Shanahan has finally escaped that formidable family’s shadow and carved out his own path. By all accounts, McDaniel is a true genius of the game and is destined to accomplish greatness as a head coach. I have long maintained the unpopular opinion that Kyle Shanahan is given far too much credit for being a brilliant mind, while still holding a losing record as an NFL head coach. McDaniel is taking his talents to South Beach and has an array of speedy weapons and a QB that Shanahan has never been able to enjoy while in San Francisco.
The crux of this forecast hinges on the leap of third-year QB Tua Tagovailoa. The fact of the matter is Tua is an extremely accurate passer who has suffered from awful mismanagement from the Dolphins’ front office to this point. He has had terrible offensive coaching, subpar offensive line play, and a dearth of receiving weaponry…until now. The trade for Tyreek Hill changed everything. The Cheetah is still a breathtaking offensive weapon that melts entire defensive game plans and bends them to his will. Even still, my eyes are on Jaylen Waddle as the sneaky candidate to break into the WR1 conversation. This offense will be a track meet every week and remind us old-timers of the greatest show on turf. Any offensive scheme that made Jimmy Garoppolo look like a serviceable NFL QB can make Tua look like Steve Young.
Mac Jones will flounder and regress in a bottom-five offense in the NFL.
Unless your fantasy league has a D/ST or IDP roster spots, I am punting this team into the bleeping sun. The NFL is a passing league and QB development is of paramount importance. The Patriots have entrusted Mac Jones’ tutelage to a defensive coordinator and a special teams coach, neither of whom has any business running an offense at any level. The descent from Josh McDaniels to this clown show will be tragically steep. Bill Belichick will undoubtedly try to remain run-heavy like last season but expect opponents to load the box and force Jones to beat them down the field with a receiving corps that is horribly average.
I hate this offense. With every other team in the AFC East improving, I have to consider the Patriots as more likely to dwell in the basement than to win this division. They say to never bet against the greatest coach of all time. For the first time ever, I find myself questioning what the hell Bill is thinking. Mac Jones is a cerebral QB with physical limitations. Why not treat him like Peyton Manning? Manning was given elite receivers and a legendary offensive coach in Tom Moore. Jones is dealing with the island of misfit toys and two outright failures calling plays.
Elijah Moore and Breece Hall will each be top-15 at their respective positions.
What are the Jets going to be this season? The smart and skeptical money is on “they’ll be the same old Jets,” but the stellar work of general manager Joe Douglas has not gone unnoticed. Zach Wilson is going to have every opportunity to sink or swim in the LaFleur offense with some of the best young skill weaponry in the NFL. Elijah Moore showed last season that he is one of the most gifted receivers in the NFL. Anyone who can produce WR1 weeks with Mike White and Josh Johnson as their QB is on their way to greatness. The Jets were also really ramping up Moore’s snap share and target volume before his season was lost to injury. The presence of veteran Corey Davis and the arrival of gifted rookie Garrett Wilson will free Moore up to put his stunning game on display more often.
Breece Hall did not look great in the preseason. The decorated rookie RB from Iowa State is the consensus best ball carrier in the 2022 class and put on an absolute show at the NFL Scouting Combine, but was mostly ineffective behind Michael Carter in his first looks in the NFL. Hall is still going to smash in the NFL. The signature of this offensive system, derived from the Shanahan tree, is to force defenses to respect speed and stay on assignment. Hall has a black belt in making defenders miss, erasing pursuit angles and breaking off gigantic runs. He is a home run hitter; the type this offense has desperately lacked for many years. Carter can be named the “starter,” but Breece Hall is the lead dog and will be the engine that makes this thing hum. This offense can be top-10 in the NFL in 2022. The special players they have drafted recently are the reason why.
The balance of the Colts offense will frustrate fantasy managers with Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman, Jr.
The future of the Colts is very bright. I think they are an absolute lock to win the AFC South. Winning teams don’t always correlate with league-winning performances in fantasy football. As great as Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman are and have been, Indy is not necessarily going to funnel a massive amount of work their way. Taylor was one of the lowest-scoring RB1s in years and that included a five-touchdown game versus Buffalo. Pittman has all the arrows pointing upward, but he will assuredly have more quality competition for targets this season than in years past. To boil it down further, the Colts are going to be maddeningly diverse on offense.
Matt Ryan is a huge upgrade for the Colts passing game over Carson Wentz. Coaches and teammates have been raving about his accuracy and leadership. I am less worried about Pittman paying off at his ADP, but there are still more deserving mouths to feed in this passing attack than there were last season. Parris Campbell‘s healthy return puts him in the starting slot conversation with amazing skills after the catch. Alec Pierce, the rookie from Cincinnati, is an intriguing addition to the Z-receiver position with his unique combination of size and speed. Pittman is going to be a solid WR2, but might not have the ceiling to reach WR1 status. JT has his bell cow role, but will often be left out of receiving work because of how good Nyheim Hines is. Is Taylor the “safest” RB1 in the NFL? Probably, but there hasn’t been a repeat performer at that position in a long time.
Ryan Tannehill is set up to lose his job to Malik Willis this season; at no detriment whatsoever to Derrick Henry.
This Titans team is really interesting. Everyone has already forgotten that Ryan Tannehill was a QB1 last season in fantasy, including the Tennessee front office. Although it was not at all shocking to see the franchise address the QB position through the draft, taking the dual-threat Willis in the third round raised a lot of eyebrows. It is now very clear that the Titans do not have Tannehill in their long-term plans at QB, especially with how great Willis has already looked in training camp and in preseason action. We’ve all seen this movie before: starter gets hurt and never regains his job. There also seems to be a hint of a shorter leash for Tannehill if he is struggling and the team is out of playoff contention.
Derrick Henry is at full strength after a broken foot all but ended his quest for consecutive 2,000-yard rushing seasons. Despite his continuous decline in per-touch efficiency, King Henry is still one of the last true bell cow RBs in the NFL and will pile on loads of fantasy points, even without a lot of receiving work. His performance in 2022 is impervious to whomever is the QB in Nashville. The Titans go as Derrick Henry goes and that’s that. He’s as solid a lock for the top-5 RBs as there is in good health.
Travis Etienne is only targeted 60 times, but still sneaks into the top-24 RBs.
The fantasy community on Twitter is obsessed with this crazy idea that Etienne is an elite receiving back. The crazy part is that he’s not that at all. It’s also completely fine that he’s not. As recently as 2019, Etienne himself said he was not a natural receiver and had to work extra hard to even be a viable option in Clemson’s screen-heavy scheme. It’s a good thing he did, because the numbers he is capable of producing are tantalizing. It appears that James Robinson will not miss much (or any) time in 2022 after his Achilles injury. Don’t let that downgrade Etienne at his current ADP. When it comes to open field running talent, the Louisiana native is absolutely special.
I don’t have a lot of confidence in Doug Pederson’s Jags featuring Etienne heavily in their passing game, but we will see them “ride the hot hand” quite a bit. Robinson’s presence won’t hinder Etienne’s upside any more than it will force the offense to get more creative to use both in diverse ways. They are both fine as receivers, but J-Rob is not a home run hitter. Etienne might not crack the top-12 like some have predicted, but he is still worth a fourth-round pick in your draft as an exciting player who is very easy to root for.
Nico Collins will lead the AFC South in receiving touchdowns.
This prediction might be the one that gets the most bookmarks and screenshots. Call it a gut feeling (or insanity), but there are plenty of sharp analysts who will echo my feeling on an impending Nico Collins breakout season. He has the size and speed. The former Michigan Wolverine is a monster at contested catches, especially in the red zone. One reason I feel confident jumping out on a ledge for a guy who was WR86 in PPR as a rookie last season was just how much fellow-rookie Davis Mills impressed me. I did not foresee the type of accuracy and big time throws that Mills took directly into the NFL from Stanford. His growth as a passer frees up the possibility that he could support more than just Brandin Cooks as a fantasy-viable WR.
Collins still has a long way to go to be more than a late-round flyer in fantasy drafts, but I have seen enough in his game to project him as someone who could make leaps and bounds as a professional receiver. He earned the X-receiver starting position around the same time Mills ramped up the passing volume in 2021. Although only given credit for one touchdown last season, Collins had multiple called back on penalties toward the end of the season. Mills was looking for his 6-foot-4 high jumper to win 50-50 balls. I think the Texans will call his number a great number of times in 2022 and cash in.
Allen Robinson will have the same number of WR1 weeks as Cooper Kupp.
Take nothing away from Cooper Kupp’s historic Triple Crown season in 2021. He was spectacular and will be again in 2022. What the Rams lacked for the majority of last season was a balancing presence at WR to compliment Kupp’s unique role in the McVay offense. The absence of Robert Woods forced Matthew Stafford to lean almost entirely on Kupp until Odell Beckham Jr. made his Rams debut in Week 10.
Similar to Beckham, Allen Robinson is a true X-receiver who still absolutely mangles man and press coverage. Even in of the most inept offenses I’ve ever watched, A-Rob appeared in the 81st percentile versus man and the 96th percentile versus press according to Reception Perception. This was despite running a slant, dig, or curl route on nearly 60% of the charted plays. What Matt Nagy did to one of the game’s best WRs last season is absolutely criminal, but A-Rob has landed in the sunniest spot imaginable to stage his renaissance. I have him ranked as WR20, huddled among the best in the game in fantasy’s deepest position.
Trey Lance will be a top-10 fantasy QB, even with a mediocre QBR.
I have long believed in and preached to “trust the talent over the situation.” The QB situation in San Francisco is an abject clusterf***. The Shanahan/Lynch era still has a losing record and one run to the Super Bowl has polished the excrement this team has plopped onto the field since 2017. I finally saw a turn in the positive direction when they mortgaged their future on Trey Lance, then was dismayed when they kept the hapless Jimmy Garoppolo ahead of him on the depth chart.
The new Jimmy G contract really just means that he is more available to trade, with the no-trade clause giving the veteran QB control over where he goes. The team is firmly moving forward with their new franchise QB and are far better for it. I had Lance scouted as the fantasy QB3 in last year’s class and he will not need to be very sharp to pile on mountains of points on fantasy rosters. The weaponry and QB-friendly system, combined with Lance’s 800-plus rushing yard with touchdowns upside, means the only way Lance lets us down in fantasy is through injury. Funny, that’s also the only way Jimmy G ever sees the field for the 49ers again.
Kyler Murray plays “hero ball” and will be a top-5 QB despite leading a losing team.
The Cardinals are in real trouble this season. On paper, their record will entirely depend on the offense. Truthfully, the defense might be so bad that Arizona might put too much on their diminutive QB’s shoulders to overcome it. The NFC West has long been a rugged division and figures to be a bit easier with Russell Wilson’s departure, but the Rams and 49ers are both playoff contenders that I feel will sweep the Cardinals.
Murray himself is an NFL superstar and fantasy stalwart with the coveted Konami Code. He has no shortage of receiving talent, combining elite X-receiver DeAndre Hopkins with the acquisition of his incendiary teammate from Oklahoma, Marquise Brown. Firecracker gadget receiver Rondale Moore is back, along with Zach Ertz at TE. Incoming rookie TE Trey McBride was one of the most productive receivers in all of NCAA football for Colorado State last season and will be involved early and often. James Conner and Darrel Williams are also both capable receivers out of the backfield. The combination of offensive firepower and awful defense spells an elite fantasy ceiling for Murray, even if the Cardinals are doomed to mediocrity in the win column.
Tyler Lockett will be the biggest value versus ADP among all WRs.
Even the sharpest football minds have been befuddled by the Pete Carroll/John Schneider regime. Most recently, they capitulated to their franchise QB and traded Russell Wilson to the Broncos for picks, disappointing young signal caller Drew Lock, and talented-but-unlucky TE Noah Fant. Even with all the trappings of a rebuild, the Seahawks insist they are still trying to compete to win games. As loony (and hilarious) as that sounds, there are still some fantasy-relevant pieces that stand to absolutely annihilate their ADP.
One is DK Metcalf, who is still the same mythical beast as in lore. The other is Tyler Lockett. The Kansas State speedster has not finished worse than WR16 in the last four seasons. Geno Smith‘s promotion to starting QB in Wilson’s wake has cut the bottom out of Lockett’s pockets in fantasy. His ADP is WR47 currently and I drafted him as the WR50 in Scott Fish Bowl 12. Reception Perception also spoke fondly of Lockett’s QB-independent success rate last season, ranking above the league average on every type of route except one. Even Geno Smith can find a guy who is always open.
Tyler Lockett has been WR16 or better in each of the last four seasons.
You can currently draft him in fantasy football as WR47. pic.twitter.com/pYxAoSzvXp
— Dave Kluge (@DaveKluge) August 30, 2022
Aaron Jones will lead the Packers in targets and receptions; AJ Dillon will lead the NFC in rushing touchdowns.
I audibly laughed at the report that the Packers would use a “WR by committee” approach this season. In other words, they have a bunch of dudes they don’t trust and none of them will be fantasy-relevant on a consistent basis. Enter Aaron Jones, one of the best receiving RBs in the NFL that simply can’t get any respect. Not only is he locked in as Aaron Rodgers‘ most trusted ally remaining in this passing game, he’s a veritable scoring machine with the ball in his hands. Expect Jones to push 100 targets and earn the most concentrated attention from the ayahuasca amigo from NorCal.
Just because a healthy Aaron Jones will be weaponized all over the formation does not mean that fantasy managers should fret at all about the one they call “Quadzilla.” AJ Dillon is a bad man, looking to force defenders into plenty of business decisions. The Packers finish the fantasy schedule with five cold-weather games in six weeks, leaving a whole heap of aching bones in Dillon’s wake. Green Bay’s offense will be just fine this season, with two RBs who have the ability to score 15 touchdowns apiece in a classic cumulonimbus spectacle of thunder and lightning.
D’Andre Swift will produce 1,000 rushing yards AND 1,000 receiving yards.
I would say this is my most out-of-bounds prediction. Only Roger Craig, Marshall Faulk, and Christian McCaffrey have ever hit this season-long mark. Ironically, it’s the rushing mark that I believe will be harder to attain for the explosive back from Georgia. He will need a CMC-level third-year bump in yards-per-carry to surpass 1,000 yards rushing on assuredly fewer than 200 rushing attempts. Of course, any upgrade in snap share with a declining role for Jamaal Williams would greatly accelerate the odds of this prediction coming to fruition.
The Lions will surprise a lot of people this season. Once Dan Campbell took over play calling duties, the offense went from awful to very exciting. It was even more impressive what they were able to accomplish without their two best receivers, Swift and TE TJ Hockenson. 200-plus rushing attempts or greater than 5.0 yards per carry, combined with Swift’s baseline seven targets per contest, and this prediction would come true for both of us. That’s right, this is exactly what D’Andre said was his goal for 2022.
Justin Jefferson will win the Triple Crown for WRs and surpass 2,000 receiving yards.
Imagine if the best young WR in the NFL was put in the same offensive system as a guy who just won the receiving Triple Crown? It happened this offseason, when the Vikings hired former Rams’ offensive coordinator to be their new head coach. All Jefferson did in his first two NFL seasons was compile more receiving yards than anyone ever…with a run-first offense and head coach from the stone age. There was no warning before Cooper Kupp exploded into NFL lore last year and went from very good to legendary. There are more than a few strong inklings that the former LSU Tiger is well on his way to an historic career.
Assuming health, Jefferson’s biggest obstacle to the Triple Crown will be the touchdowns. We know from history that the best receivers don’t always find the end zone a proportionate amount of times for their dominance. I believe the key to him finding pay dirt more often this season will stem from his counterpart Adam Thielen finally regressing in the touchdown department. It has been long predicted and the dude still keeps scoring. In today’s passing league, it will probably take at least 15 to lead the NFL. I am not worried at all about Jefferson piling up catches and yards. Even 2,000 yards is only 118 yards per game over 17 of them. He averaged 95.1 last season on a dismal 64.7% catch percentage. Those figures are both destined to heat up considerably.
Justin Fields will pass for 4,000 yards, rush for 800 yards, and be a top-10 QB.
Despite his awful rookie campaign, Fields showed as much brilliance in moments as can possibly be expected from a kid who what shoved under the staircase like he was Harry Potter and Matt Nagy was Aunt Petunia Dursley. The Bears cleaned house, ridding themselves of the Matts (Pace and Nagy). They hired another Matt (Eberflus) as head coach and young GM Ryan Poles to embark on one hell of a rebuild. As cash-strapped under the cap as a team could be in 2022, they did not do their young franchise QB any favors.
It won’t matter. Justin Fields is a wizard of a football player. He was on pace for nearly 1,000 rushing yards last season, despite Nagy throwing him to the wolves with no protection or pre-snap motion. He wasn’t even able to call his own number on run-pass options (RPOs), even though it’s a growing sensation in the NFL and 90% of what Fields ran at Ohio State. Hell, even his backup Nick Foles took the Eagles to an inprobable Super Bowl win with a modified RPO scheme. The Bears still have never had a 4,000-yard passer in franchise history, but that will come to an end this season. Fields will lift himself up by his bootstraps and rebuild the Bears his damn self, even if it means peppering a bunch of receivers whose names we haven’t heard of.
DeVonta Smith and Kenneth Gainwell will score more fantasy points per game than the “starters” above them.
Everyone is falling head-over-heels about the genius trade to acquire AJ Brown from the Titans on draft day. Personally, I think Brown was better off on the Titans, where he really had no competition for targets. It’s also a neutral move at best from one run-heavy offense to the other with mobile QBs who aren’t known for their accuracy or decision-making. Brown and the Eagles will still be just fine on offense, but it will come as Jalen Hurts embraces his new stable of receiving weapons. Devonta Smith is a star in the making. As special as Brown is as an athlete, his best PPR finish is WR12. With Smith’s insane ability to get open at all three levels, the possibility that he earns more targets than Brown cannot be ignored.
Gainwell is the ace in the hole for this backfield. Miles Sanders is really piling on the injury history and has still not gained any shred of trust from the coaching staff or front office. Plus, Gainwell was the one who the new regime specifically drafted with a role in mind. Think Austin Ekeler meets Nyheim Hines; RBs with so much natural receiving ability that they can be deployed and weaponized anywhere at any time. We don’t need to speculate whether Gainwell has a better nose for the end zone than Sanders either. He scored seven times as a rookie to a whopping zero for the Penn State grad. That prediction is comparably mild, if you ask me.
Tony Pollard will go 750/750 in rushing and receiving yards and score the most fantasy points among Dallas skill players.
Everyone who follows my work knows that Tony Pollard is my favorite NFL player. I have loved his game since he was ripping it up at Memphis. What I have been most disappointed in over his first three NFL seasons has been his usage. It hasn’t been enough or reflective of his game-breaking talent. What was heard as camp murmurs since 2019 that he could reprise his receiving role from Memphis in Kellen Moore’s offense has risen to a dull roar during the 2022 offseason…from the front office and QB Dak Prescott.
2021 saw Pollard take a decent chunk of the rushing pie as Ezekiel Elliott limped through a knee injury. He compiled 719 yards on the ground in 15 games, averaging a stellar 5.5 yards per carry. Still, the receiving volume wasn’t there. His route participation was only 23% of his snaps, even though he was the very best RB in the NFL in yards per route run and second-best in yards per touch. The dearth of receiving help, with Amari Cooper jettisoned to Cleveland and Michael Gallup returning from a January ACL tear, has forced the Cowboys’ hand to enlist the college WR’s help. It’s about damn time! Hopefully, Pollard’s obvious talent will show up on another level in 2022 and beyond.
Antonio Gibson will crush his free-falling ADP with 200-plus fantasy points for the third-consecutive season.
I wrote out this take before the Brian Robinson attempted robbery where he was shot multiple times. I wish him a full and speedy recovery. Even with Robinson on the field in full capacity, the Commanders have one good RB and his name is Antonio Gibson. Two seasons into a career he entered as a college WR with 33 career rushing attempts, he has finished RB12 and RB13 with double-digit touchdowns both times. He is not losing his job. Will he cede some carries to Robinson? Sure. Would Robinson have even seen the field at Alabama after five years if there wasn’t a brief lapse in blue chip talent in the backfield at Tuscaloosa? No.
The signing of Jd Mckissic also raised concerns over whether the Commanders, namely head coach Ron Rivera, still had faith in their RB with a rare combination of size, speed, and receiving ability. This is nonsense. McKissic is a 29-year old journeyman who has not had a healthy offseason and is the real reason that Robinson was getting so much fanfare before his attack. Gibson is a dynamic playmaker who will enter the 2022 season without turf toe and fully recovered from the fractured shin bone he trekked through last year. Those of you who bought the dip against the adverse training camp rumors and reports will be rewarded immensely.
Saquon Barkley will be a top-5 RB in fantasy points per game.
Looking back on the 2018 season, we truly have been deprived of the full potential of one of the preeminent RBs in NFL history over the last three years. Saquon Barkley was (and still is) a generational talent and remarkable athlete. Injury prone is as real as Santa Claus, but Barkley has been the victim of some horrendous injury misfortune until now. The Giants have compiled a dumpster fire of a roster and, in turn, will have no other choice but to depend on their only good skill player to win games this season. New head coach Brian Daboll is at least more qualified to run an NFL team better than Jason Garrett and Joe Judge. Joe Schoen is probably kept awake at night by the ghastly roster left to him by buffoon David Gettleman. Saquon is their savior. He can and will return to his rookie form, with or without a superhero’s cape.
Any intelligent head coach would know to put his best players in space and avoid situations that emphasize his team’s weaknesses. Daniel Jones is a walking turnover, so giving him easy throws to get him in rhythm (think Jimmy G in San Francisco) with dynamic ball carriers like Saquon, Kadarius Toney, and Wan’Dale Robinson would bestow better results in 2022. Add in Saquon’s prodigious talent at every facet of the RB position, and fantasy fireworks are only dependent on his availability. I say, he keeps his promise and “goes crazy.”
Mike Evans will set a new five-season mark with 145 targets and tie Jefferson with 14 receiving touchdowns.
Until certain news items broke, Mike Evans was seemingly in line for a return to the gargantuan target share he saw when Jameis Winston was in Tampa Bay. Chris Godwin has looked healthy enough to not begin the 2022 season on the PUP list, but his status is still uncertain. I don’t believe Julio Jones is “washed,” but I’d hardly say it was easy to watch his decline over the past couple years. Evans is still going to see a huge target share in this pass-friendly offense. Tom Brady loves throwing to him and he’s still really good at football. This offense lost Rob Gronkowski and Antonio Brown, along with a fully-healthy Godwin, so it shouldn’t stun anyone if Evans is a WR1 this season.
I am sick and tired of hearing how “inconsistent” Evans is during the season, then how consistent he after the season because he has over 1,000 receiving yards every year. He will crush the production he has had thus far with Brady and remind everyone just how dominant he can be when he’s the alpha dog at the X-receiver position. He has every bit of the same upside as any other WR1 in the NFL for fantasy purposes and a clearer avenue to it than most of them. Oh yeah, he’s an absolute lock to make it eight years in a row with 1k.
Jameis Winston will toss 30 touchdown passes (and only 13 interceptions!).
I can’t fathom why fantasy managers are letting Jameis Winston fall so far in drafts this offseason. He is coming off ACL surgery, but it was early in the season and he’s not a mobile QB anyway. Furthermore, he was in the midst of the most efficient season of his career before he went down. Winston was off to a torrid start in 2021, with 14 touchdown passes to only three interceptions. The scary part is he was doing this with Marquez Callaway as his best receiver. Enter fantastic rookie Chris Olave and presumed healthy veteran Michael Thomas to the fray and the Florida State legend is going to be a late-round steal at QB.
Fantasy managers have also forgotten how amazing Alvin Kamara is as a receiver when his QB isn’t Taysom Hill. His legal woes likely won’t be addressed until next year, avoiding any worry that the perennial fantasy superstar misses any time to suspension in 2022. I can’t think of a better security blanket for a QB than Kamara. Winston might not have the Konami Code, but he’s got as many as three elite route runners to choose from on every drop back. Nobody is talking about the Saints right now, but they will be.
Christian McCaffrey will join Swift in the 1k/1k club and register as a WR1 on his receiving production alone.
Nobody is accusing Matt Rhule of being a good NFL head coach. Every voice of reason is saying the Panthers should scale back the staggering workload for their omnipotent star RB, but Rhule has said his plan with Christian McCaffrey is simply “attack.” Okay…so we’re going to see an absolute deluge of touches for one of the most dynamic fantasy players in NFL history? Let’s smash that draft button ASAP. Miss me with the “injury prone” BS, CMC is going to go thermonuclear.
I never play it safe. I don’t play fantasy football against friends, family, and fellow analysts to simply make the playoffs. If the object of the game is to score points, I want the guy who scores the most points out of all of them. CMC is that guy when he’s on the field. He has missed a ton of games the past two seasons, but none of them were due to injuries that will affect him going into the future. I’m all in; the chips are in the middle of the table. I’m projecting 2,400 scrimmage yards for the Stanford legend, with 130 passing targets. Let’s eat!
Kyle Pitts will score 300 points in PPR and be the equivalent of WR5 overall (and TE1).
Last, but certainly not least, my spiciest prediction is a continuing bet on the most remarkable prospect I’ve ever evaluated. Kyle Pitts is just special. He has already accomplished special things in the league before he could order himself a celebratory champagne shower. QB controversy be damned, The Unicorn is out here writing fantasy fairy tales. Head coach Arthur Smith says last year “only scratched the surface” of what Pitts is capable of. Let’s see it, Smith. Only the dumbest coach in NFL history would take a 6-foot-6, 240-pound gazelle off the field in the red zone two years in a row.
Give Pitts the WR1 treatment. He led the NFL in yards per route run when aligned as an outside receiver. Better than Triple Crown Kupp and better than Deebo the Wide Back. He was better than Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase. Treat him like the alpha he is and Kyle Pitts will be the next Megatron. The only real question should be whether Pitts is still TE-eligible for fantasy football in 2023. If he puts up the 90/1,300/12 line I’m projecting, he should call Jimmy Graham to thank him for walking so he could run and get that WR money.
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